Climate Risks and Impacts
The Region of Western Greece (RWG) is confronted with significant climate-related risks, such as heat stress, wildfires and droughts, which are all identified as high or very high-risk threats based on the ESPON Climate Risk data. In line with these findings and as a result of further desk-based research, these three areas have been prioritized as key areas of concern. The coastal and flash floods present moderate risk levels, however they are considered of secondary importance and thus will not be analyzed in detail within this regional profile.
Main areas of Concern
Heat stress on population and economy
Heat stress on population and economy
Historically, Greece has been accustomed to deal with high temperatures during summers. Both the intensifying impacts and increasingly growing temperatures of climate change are expected to place additional stress on health risks. Ηeatwaves increasingly threaten vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly suffering from chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular, respiratory-, renal-, mental-, and nervous system diseases. Overall, forecasts estimate that by 2050, the frequency of heatwave days will increase by 15 to 20 days per year. Under a high emissions scenario, average annual air temperature of the mainland Greece are expected to rise by approximately 3.4 °C warmer by mid-century.
In Greek cities, the effects of rising average temperatures will be even more acute as heat islands form in urban areas, where pavement and built-up areas retain heating and reduces air flows. The regional capital of Western Greece is expected to be among the most affected, with temperatures increases expected to surpass those of all other major Greek cities under a high emission scenario, resulting of the combined impact of urban density and broader climatic warming. The occurrence of “tropical nights’, when temperatures do not fall below 20°C, will also be increasingly frequent, particularly along the western coastline which includes the region of Western Greece.
Droughts on primary sector
Droughts on primary sector
The occurrence of droughts is closely linked to patterns of rainfall and evaporation intimately, due to increasing temperatures caused by climate change. In Greece, the annual rainfall levels are expected to decrease by 10% to 30% by 2050. Combined with the rising frequency of heatwaves, there will be more areas affected by dry spells, and ultimately droughts. Although, higher temperatures may bring certain advantages to the agricultural sector, such as a longer cultivation period for specific crops. These potential benefits are expected to be outweighed by the adverse effects of climate change. However, prolonged periods of severe droughts are likely to damage the growth of most crops.
Wildfires effects on environment
Wildfires effects on environment
Moreover, wildfires have been a persistent challenge for Greece and the region of Western Greece. During the summer of 2023, the country experienced one of the worst wildfires in history, with over 140,000 hectares burned across the country, while smaller scale fires continued in 2024, including have also plagued 712 hectares lost in Western Greece in October.
Wildfires have the potential to damage local areas extensively but also reduce the resilience of the ecosystems and hinder the ability of the landscape to absorb flooding and heat. Local causes can aggravate these patterns if uncontrolled development or poor forest-management practices are not addressed.
Climate change is expected to intensify these risks, as alters temperature and an evaporation pattern, thus the risk of wildfires is expected to rise sharply. The number of days with high risk of wildfires is expected to increase between 15% and 70% by 2050, partially due to declining levels of rainfall. Under a very high emissions scenario, the consequences of wildfires may be more severe and devastating than today.
Current situation of climate adaptation efforts in the region
Current situation of climate adaptation efforts in the region
Improvement Actions
The 2022 Regional Plan for adaptation to climate change outlines several strategic initiatives aimed to mitigate the rising effects caused by heat and heatwaves. Among these, the development of guidelines to manage extreme heat events are prioritized, particularly focused on stakeholders in the tourism industry. For the transportation area, the plan aims at designing a climate-resilient infrastructure and upgrade the existing networks, such as making new asphalt mixtures resistant to heat. Similarly, the plan proposes preparation of emergency plans for health and social services to ensure adequate intervention during extreme events like heat waves. Guidelines for self-protection measures for citizens will also be issued. Moreover, the plan demonstrates a proactive approach to monitoring heat-related developments, employing indicators such as heat-induced hospitalizations and fatalities as well as the number of heat island projects in progress.
Moreover, several measures have been pursued to adapt and mitigate the effects of droughts on primary sector in the above mentioned plan. For example, incentives are provided to farmers to adopt less water-intensive or drought-tolerant crops, which would make agricultural production more resilient towards drought. Additional measures focus on improving water resource management to address both floods and water scarcity during periods of drought. As indicated, the measures to monitor developments in drought risk include change in number of days where less than 1 mm of rain occurs, and overall annual changes in rainfall.
The climate change adaptation plan of Western Greece includes a dedicated budget for forests and reforested area, but only 2.3% of the total budget is allocated to the efforts in this area. The 2022 plan highlights a range of proposed measures to provide better early warning systems for wildfires, strengthen public information and awareness actions in the area, and to improve infrastructure and forest management so that it provides a higher extent of fire protection. A different set of measures are aimed at rehabilitation of fire-affected forest areas. In the more recent adaptation plan, there are several wildfire related indicators, used for monitoring, specifically focused on the change in numbers of days annually which have high or extremely high risk of forest fires.
Where does the Region want to focus with P2R?
Where does the Region want to focus with P2R?
Region of Western Greece intends to use P2R programme to ensure wider engagement of citizens and diverse stakeholders in the co-creation of the aspects of climate resilience. In terms of capacity building, the Region recognizes the need for capability strengthen both within and across networked regional organizations. Also, it recognizes the importance of expanding knowledge on adaptation options across different KCS, which is not the basic practice of the region until now. To this end, regional strategy needs to be aligned with the EU Mission Adaptation to Climate Change and P2R’s objectives/approaches and this will be achieved through the participation in P2R’s initiatives and capacity-building activities.